Gambling Guide » Online Craps

Learn to Play Casino Craps: the Any Craps Bet

admin — Sun, 26 Dec 2010 18:52:06 +0000

Be smart, play smart, learn how to play casino craps the right way!

Any Craps is a one-roll bet that wins if a craps (i.e., 2, 3, or 12) shows on the next roll, and loses if any other number shows. The minimum bet amount is the value of the lowest-denomination chip in play, usually $1. The payoff is 7:1, so you can bet any amount to get the full payoff odds.

The Any Craps box is located in the center of the table and typically controlled by the stickman, so keep your hands off. When you have the stickman’s attention, gently toss your chips to an open area near the center of the table and say, “Any Craps, please.” Aim for an empty spot so your chip doesn’t mess up other chips on the table.

Depending on the casino, the layout may have a box in the proposition area (i.e., center of the table) labeled “Any Craps,” or 16 small circles next to the proposition area, each containing the letter “C,” or both. The dealer places your Any Craps bet either in the box or in one of the little “C” circles. You might think, “Why are there 16 little Any Craps circles but only one Any Craps box?” Good question, but like everything else in craps, the answer is easy. The Any Craps box is big enough to hold all bets if everyone at the table makes the bet at the same time, but the little “C” circles are only big enough to hold one bet. Eight players can play on each side of the table. So, there are eight circles for eight players on each side of the table. If the casino’s layout uses little circles instead of an Any Craps box, the dealer places your Any Craps bet in the little circle that corresponds to your table position.

The Any Craps bet is sometimes called “Crap Check” when it’s used to hedge the Flat Pass Line bet. For example, if a player makes a Flat $10 Pass Line bet, he might toss in a $1 chip for a Crap Check to “protect” the Pass Line bet on the come-out roll. On the come-out, if the shooter rolls a craps, the player loses his $10 Flat Pass Line bet, but wins $7 for his Crap Check.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play casino craps the right way.

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Load of Crap: Part 1

admin — Sun, 05 Dec 2010 18:52:05 +0000

I got the idea for this article while writing about dice setting. (If you’ve read the free sample chapter from my eBook on my website, you’ll know what I think about dice setting.) I thought about the ridiculous things (and sometimes downright lies) people say to separate you from your money. I thought about the shysters who spread their misguided and oftentimes flat-out wrong advice for beating the house. Then, I thought about the unfortunate who fall for such bogus claims and advice.

This article gives a small sample of the load of crap (pun intended) from various craps-related websites, followed by brief analyses of the sheer stupidity or dubious nature of their claims. If it weren’t for the sad fact that people actually believe such crap, we’d find it entertaining. Learn from this article. Once and for all, get it through your head that craps is designed for you to lose. No system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist that will produce long-term gains for the player. The player cannot in any way gain a long-term advantage over the house, and that includes the latest trends in get-rich schemes that focus on dice setting. Don’t be a sucker. Learn to play in reality, not in fantasyland.

I took the following excerpts directly from some of the websites I scanned for 10 minutes after searching for “learn craps.” These excerpts are not from blogs, forums, or discussion groups; they’re from sites that sell craps-related products. My analyses and criticisms are based on my opinion and deemed valid until proven otherwise by a qualified and independent body.

Excerpt: “In my humble opinion, the pass line (and come) are the worst bets on the table. I understand about the 1.4% advantage and all, but has anyone actually calculated odds against, after the come out? I found two books a long time ago that stated the average against you, on the pass line after a point is established, is around 34-35%. That is to say, the odds against ‘repeating’ the point before a 7.”

Analysis: This excerpt was taken from an article intended to provide tips and strategies or playing craps. In justifying his opinion that the Flat Pass Line and Flat Come bets are the worst bets on the table, the writer removes the come-out roll from the equation. That seems absurd. The house advantage on these two bets is so low because of the player’s 2:1 advantage on the come-out roll. Indeed, the advantage shifts back to the house after the come-out, but that advantage can never shift without first going through the come-out, so trying to disregard it seems ridiculous.

Excerpt: “The only good bet is the place bets—and only for the 2 reasons, one they can be taken down at any time, and second you pick your numbers. The odds are much much much better when you try to throw one number instead of repeating it before a seven, and that is what people don’t understand. What they also don’t understand is that the seven should mathematically come up one out of every six rolls—and that is all rolls, not just box number rolls, but all of them. If someone walked up to a table and threw 2, 3, 12, 11, 2, 3, 11, 12, 2, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12, 2, his odds of throwing a seven are greater then the guy who throws 5, 6, 8, 9. How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention.”

Analysis: This excerpt is from the same article as the first excerpt. Remember, this author supposedly knows the game and is passing his wisdom to you. Where do I start? The author’s reasoning is based on the silly–and completely false–notion that outcomes of previous rolls influence future rolls. The author apparently believes in the Gambler’s Fallacy. By the believing in the Gambler’s Fallacy, the author proves his ignorance. No matter how many times a player rolls the dice, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll never change. So, the player throwing 14 rolls without hitting a 7 has the same odds of rolling a 7 on the next roll as the player who throws only four rolls without hitting a 7. The odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll for both players are exactly the same. Even if you rolled a million times without a 7 appearing, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll are exactly the same as if you had rolled only once. Results of previous rolls have no influence whatsoever on the odds of future rolls. The guy in the excerpt wonders, “How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention?” I can’t help but laugh and wonder how many screws this guy has loose. The truly sad thing is that people read this guy’s baloney, take it to be true, and then base their bets on it.

Excerpt: “This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public. When applied according to the rules presented, it is the most consistent money making craps method you are going to find and can reduce your risk of loss to less than 6%.”

Analysis: You can play the Pass Line with Odds (or Don’t Pass with Odds) and give the house an advantage of only about 1%. Lots of craps bets have house advantages much less than 6%, so touting a 6% risk of loss seems silly to me. I chuckled at the statement, “This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public.” Yeah, okay, sure. LOL (laugh out loud). The following excerpt is taken from the same website.

Excerpt: “—As with any educational or entertainment program, results may vary and [name redacted] and its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result. Purchasers of the [name redacted] are encouraged to rigorously test and personally verify results before wagering on an outcome. All gambling involves risk no matter how good the method might be. Purchasers are advised to use the [name redacted] responsibly, implement a sound money management system, and wager only with funds that will not seriously affect their lifestyle or that of others closely associated with them.”

Analysis: Again, I laughed. The website cleverly hooks you with claims of having a “professional” and “most consistent money-making” craps system. It fills you with hopes and dreams of beating the crap out of the casino. Then, after suckering you in, they cover their rear ends by including a disclaimer stating, “—its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result.” I suspect that buyers of that bogus system never make it to the bottom of the web page to read the disclaimer. They’re so hyped up on false hope of beating the casino for ga-zillions, they’ve already clicked the “Buy” button before getting anywhere near the disclaimer. If the system is so “professional” and if it truly is the “most consistent money-making craps method,” why do they need to cover their rear ends with a disclaimer? Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Don’t get conned into buying bogus winning systems. Learn to recognize bull manure. Don’t get suckered into believing you can consistently beat the casino over time. You can’t and won’t. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

The next excerpt is lengthy, but I included it because I’m sure it’ll entertain you as much as it did me.

Excerpt: “Here is a simple craps strategy that takes no skill and only two of the same bets each time you play. The writer of this method has never failed to make at least $200 per hour using this strategy. Now, with this report, you can do the same at any dice table anywhere in the world! This craps strategy has been kept within the inner circle of casino bangers for years – under a mutual gentlemen’s agreement. We tried the [name redacted] on randomized computer print-outs and couldn’t come close to losing through 8000 decisions! (Think how long you would have to stand at the tables for 8000 decisions.) We tried it at several casinos in Atlantic City, Vegas, Reno, and Tahoe. The damned thing just would not lose! With this system you won’t care if the tables are hot or cold—you still win with this super craps strategy! A new shooter can throw three or four or more craps in a row and you win! A new shooter can throw three or four or more sevens in a row and you still win! A new shooter rolls a point, and sevens out on the next roll. Shooter after shooter can do this, and you still win! A shooter can throw 14 passes, or more or less, in a row, and you still win! A bunch of players in a row, can seven out after any amount of numbers, and you still win! Read this report and you’ll find out that there is absolutely no roll of the dice that can hurt you with this system! Want to collect on every roll of the dice? Here is how to do it with four easy bets. Follow this method exactly and you’ll go home a winner everyday!”

Analysis: Woohoo! Is this the Holy Grail, the Fountain of Youth, the mother of all systems that has eluded mankind forever? Woohoo! LOL. Yeah, right. Let me get this straight—no skill required—only need to make two bets at a time—and no matter what happens, I can win $200 per hour? Woohoo! I better hurry up and buy this system before the “casino bangers” put it back in their “inner circle” under lock and key and stop offering it to the paying public. Do I really need to analyze this mumbo-jumbo? Does anyone actually believe this crapola? Sadly, people apparently do, or the website probably wouldn’t exist.

Excerpt: “I’m so positive that I can easily convert you from an inexperienced player into a master player with the skills of a pro that you may try all of my methods risk-free! I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play! Take up to a full year to learn, practice, and profit. Just remember, if your average daily winnings don’t add up to several hundred dollars, don’t forget that I will give you a 100% refund. It’s that simple.”

Analysis: This is from the same website as the previous excerpt and is typical of the guarantee that comes with many so-called winning craps systems. Read the words carefully. Let’s analyze them. “—you may try all of my methods risk-free.” It’s risk-free because the seller offers a full refund, not because the system consistently wins over time. “I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play.” Of course, they’ll work, but will they win? Anyone can use any crazy system and it’ll “work.” The word “work” in this context simply means the system is a legitimate method for playing the game whether you win or lose with it. In the excerpt, if the word “work” were replaced with the word “win,” then the seller would be at great risk because no system will consistently win over time. “—don’t forget that I will give you a 100% refund.” Remember, the guarantee is that you can get your money back, not that the system will consistently win. The problem with these kinds of guarantees is that many people either simply forget or don’t try to get the refund after losing their shirts, or they try but get delayed so long they get disgusted and give up. The moral is, be skeptical of craps systems that come with guarantees. Ensure you fully understand the guarantee before buying. Focus on whether the craps system is guaranteed to win, or whether you’re guaranteed to get to your money back after you lose your rear end. Note the carefully chosen words and understand their meanings, such as “can” instead of “will.” One small word can, and usually will, make a big difference in the meaning of a sentence or an entire paragraph.

Starting to get the picture? Scams are everywhere. Don’t be a sucker. Don’t let your dreams of winning big blind you. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps. Read Part 2 of this article for even sillier claims and bigger laughs.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Dealer Tokes

admin — Sat, 04 Dec 2010 18:52:29 +0000

You think, “Tip the dealers? What? Losing money to the casino isn’t enough, now you tell me I have to give money to the dealers?” Yes, you should tip dealers, especially when they’re helpful. In the casino business, a “toke” is a tip. Dealers call tippers “George” or “live,” and non-tippers “stiffs.”

Dealers typically work for minimum wage (or close to it) plus tips. I compare them to restaurant servers because they provide a service and they rely on tips for their livelihood. The service that dealers provide includes properly handling your bets and winnings, answering questions about the game, being courteous and friendly, and just making your craps play more enjoyable.

Craps dealers typically share tips instead of keeping what they get. This makes your job of tipping a bit trickier. Ideally, you want to maximize tips for good dealers and minimize tips for bad ones. In terms of craps dealers, “good” versus “bad” isn’t necessarily a measure of skill. If a dealer is friendly, respectful, attentive, and funny, I won’t reproach him for being slow (he may be slow because, for example, he’s new on the job). I’d much rather be in a slow game with fun dealers than a fast game with dealers who are mannequins when they aren’t handling chips.

If craps dealers share tips, how do ensure yours goes to the good ones? You can’t. If I’m disappointed in a dealer’s service, I ensure his colleagues know I’m disappointed. When the bad one takes a break and a good one replaces him, I politely tell the good one something like, “I don’t know if Fred is having a bad day or what, but he’s been downright mean to the newbie on the hook.” The dealer knows I’ve been tipping well and he usually gets the hint that Fred ought to lighten up if they want me to continue tipping. Because dealers’ income depends on player tips, the good dealer won’t hesitate to insist that the lousy one get his act together. The good one knows, if I stop tipping, maybe others will, too.

If you’re losing during a particular session, it’s not the dealers’ fault, so don’t blame them. It’s not easy to tip while losing, but you shouldn’t base your tipping on your gambling success (or failure). When losing, if you can’t keep the same tipping pace as when you’re winning, simply slow down, but don’t stop it altogether. Always remember that you give tips for good service, not for your success at the table.

For whatever reason, most craps players don’t tip at all. I don’t know if it’s because of stinginess or just plain ignorance. Usually, you’re the only one tipping. Although not good for the dealers, that’s great for you. It means you get all the dealers’ attention and reap all the rewards. Rewards? Absolutely, positively, undeniably yes! Learning how and when to tip, as well as how you’ll benefit from tipping are part of learning the secret to craps.

Now you know!

The History of Craps

admin — Fri, 26 Nov 2010 18:52:37 +0000

So where did it all begin, this game of craps? We are all familiar with the game thanks to its popularity in Vegas and more probably Hollywood, but did you know that craps has been around for a long time in various guises?

Dice games have been popular since the times of the Eygyptian Empire(dice have been dug up dating back to around 600 B.C). One strand of historians think that it became popular thanks to the Romans (as was famously said during Monty Python’s “Life of Brian”- “What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us”)?

More likely is that it developed from an old game called “Hazard” (from the Arabic “az-zahr” which means dice).

Hazard was not only the place where Bo and Duke lived, it was also a game adapted from the Arab world by an Englishman called Sir William of Tyre and his knights, during the crusades. This dice game was played in the British Isles in the 12th century AD. In France they renamed the game “crabs” (what you call a losing throw of “2″ in Hazard) and this then became “craps” when it became popular in the US, as no one could pronounce “crabs” and anyway that word has multiple meanings. So basically craps is an Arabic game, which is not that suprising as that was such a numerate part of the world.

French settlers in the south of the US played Hazard frequently and it became big among African Americans in the early 19th century.

The game jumped over in to the gambling river boats on the Mississippi and then back out to the rest of the United States until someone called John Winn further developed the game so that you could bet with the shooter or against him. This cancelled out the advantage of playing with crooked dice which was a widespread problem at the time.

Now of course, craps is the biggest betting game in the world by wagers and its Internet cousin online craps is one of the most popular betting games on the net. Who knows what the next evolution will be, but safe to say we will be seeing and hearing about craps for a long time to come.

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Want Proof Dice Control is a Scam?

admin — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 18:52:30 +0000

Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way!

Is it legitimate or a scam? Let’s take a look. I suspect that the notion of dice control is a big-money industry (perhaps, multi-million dollars annually). You name it and they sell it: books, tapes, seminars, full-size practice craps tables, half-size tables (a.k.a. throwing stations), toss bars, dice, and practice grippers. But is it real or just an elaborate hoax to swindle you out of your hard-earned money? The answer seems so obvious. Sadly, the world will never be without plenty of people so blinded by their burning desire to win big that they can’t or won’t stop long enough to think twice before handing over their money.

If you’ve read my other articles and Ebook, you know my thoughts on the world of dice control, dice setting, precision shooting, or whatever else you want to call it. In my opinion, it’s a silly world called Fantasyland. I won’t regurgitate my other works so let’s get to the point of this article. You want proof that dice control is a scam to rip you off? Consider one simple question and its answer. Take a deep breath and try to relax your overwhelming desire to get rich off the casino. Now, ask yourself, “Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?” Be honest with your answer.

Again, “Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?” Of course not. The casino has the right to deny service to any player for any reason, whether you’re too drunk, too obnoxious, too lucky, too skilled, or too anything. If they don’t want you playing for any reason, they can tell you to leave and there’s nothing you, the law, or anyone can do about it. Consider blackjack card counters. Card counting is entirely legal, but if the casino thinks a player is card counting (and, thus, has a small advantage over the house), it immediately removes him from the game. The casino never accepts a player advantage. The casino always has the advantage–always. Same with craps. If the casino believes a player has an advantage over the house by means of controlling the dice, it removes him from the game. The bottom line is that when the dice hit the back wall, no one knows how they’ll bounce off those rubber pyramids. That’s why casinos allow dice setters to use their wacky tossing routines.

Again, “Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?” I’ve never heard of any of the so-called dice doctors, dice wizards, or famous multi-book dice-control authors getting thrown out of a casino because of their dice-tossing skills. Have you? According to their websites and written works, they routinely play in casinos across the globe allegedly beating the crap out of the casino. So, ask yourself again, “Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?”

Casinos have been around for a long time. They’re big business. Consider the multi-billion dollar resorts in Vegas (yes, that’s “billion” with a “b”). Do you honestly think they haven’t thoroughly examined the legitimacy of dice control? A player advantage smacks those mega-businesses right where it hurts–in their wallets. Do you honestly think the casinos would tolerate and allow a player to play with an advantage over the house? The answer is obvious to me. Is it obvious to you? Put yourself in the casinos’ shoes. If you have the right to deny service to anyone for any reason, why would you allow anyone to play with an advantage over you, especially at a craps table? I doubt that you would.

If you agree that casinos do allow dice-control specialists to play, and if you agree that casinos don’t allow players to play with an advantage over the house, then what does that tell you about all the books, articles, websites, newsletters, and magazines that claim you can beat the crap out of the casino by using dice control? I don’t see how the answer could be any more obvious or simple. Casinos allow dice setters to play; casinos don’t allow a player to play with an advantage over the house; therefore, it stands to reason that the casino doesn’t believe the dice setter can gain an advantage over the house. It’s that simple. You wanted proof that dice control is a scam? That sounds like awfully convincing proof to me, how about you? If it’s true that the casino doesn’t believe the dice setter can gain an advantage over the house, then why should you believe it?

If you still don’t see the light, it’s probably because you’re desperately clinging to your blazing desire to beat the crap out of the casino. You want so badly the idea of dice control to be legitimate that you can taste it. You think, “Regardless of what you say, I saw a guy last night set the dice and he rolled point after point. It worked for him, so how can you say it doesn’t work?” Simple. It was his turn to get lucky at that particular instant in time. Everyone has good times, mediocre times, and bad times. Even the dice setter gets lucky occasionally. The question is whether the dice setter is consistently a winner. He’s not. His hot streak turns cold, just as it does for everyone. Minutes after his hot roll, the dice setter again goes through his wacky motions, but this time he immediately rolls a losing 7-out. As we learned in my other articles, it’s not the player’s dice-shooting skill or the player’s betting system that makes him a winner, it’s the distribution variance. The game is designed for the player to lose, so the player’s only hope for winning lies with the phenomenon called variance. Nothing more, nothing less. (Read my other article titled, Variance.)

One more time, “Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?” Rationally think about that question and its answer, and then decide for yourself if the notion of dice control is a scam. If the casino doesn’t believe dice setters can gain an advantage over the house, then why should you believe it?

For a detailed explanation of why I believe dice control is pure nonsense, please visit my website and read the free sample chapter on dice setting from my new Ebook.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play craps the right way.

Learn to Play Casino Craps: the 3-way Craps, Over 7, and Under 7 Bets

admin — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:52:07 +0000

Be smart, play smart, learn how to play casino craps the right way!

3-Way Craps is like Any Craps in that it’s a one-roll bet that wins if a 2, 3, or 12 appears and loses with any other number. However, it’s actually three separate one-roll bets disguised as one: a bet on the 2, a bet on the 3, and a bet on the 12. Therefore, your 3-Way Craps bet amount should be divisible by three. For example, if you make a $6 3-Way Craps bet, the dealer puts $2 on the 2, $2 on the 3, and $2 on the 12. The minimum bet amount for each of the three numbers (i.e., 2, 3, and 12) is the value of the lowest-denomination chip in play at the table, usually $1. So, since your bet amount should be divisible by three, the smallest 3-Way Craps bet you can make is $3.

The 3-Way Craps bet is controlled by the stickman, so keep your hands off. The 2, 3, and 12 boxes are clearly marked in the proposition area. When you have the stickman’s attention, gently toss your chips to an open area near the center of the table and say, “Three-way Craps, please.” Aim for an empty spot on the table so your chips don’t mess up other chips on the table.

If a 2 shows, the payoff is 30:1; and your 3 and 12 lose. If a 12 shows, the payoff is 30:1; and your 2 and 3 lose. If a 3 shows, the payoff is 15:1; and your 2 and 12 lose. Note that there are two ways to make a 3 (i.e., 1-2 and 2-1) and only one make to make a 2 (i.e., 1-1) or 12 (i.e., 6-6). Therefore, the payoff for the 3 is half the payoff for the 2 or 12.

The Over 7 and Under 7 bets are rare one-roll bets that you probably won’t see unless you play in a lot of different casinos. The Over 7 bet wins if an 8, 9, 10, 11, or 12 shows on the next roll; and loses if any other number shows, including 7. The Under 7 bet wins if a 6, 5, 4, 3, or 2 shows on the next roll; and loses if any other number shows, including 7. The payoff for both bets is 1:1, or even money.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play casino craps the right way.

The Benefits of Playing at Online Craps Casinos

admin — Mon, 25 Oct 2010 18:52:16 +0000

There are so many people who enjoy playing Craps games. In almost all casinos, this dice game is always available and attracts beginners and high rollers alike. Unfortunately, not everyone can enjoy the leisure of playing in a brick and mortar casino. Because of this, online Craps casinos have become so popular nowadays. Almost all online casinos today offer the game of Craps for their clients. When you play the game online, you will enjoy the same level of excitement and fun offered by live games. So here are the benefits of playing Craps online and why it is the best alternative to a live game of Craps.

When you play Craps games online, you will be able to enjoy complete and total privacy. It is a known fact that the Craps tables in a live casino are always noisy and full of players. This can be very intimidating especially if you are new to the game. But if you take advantage of online Craps casinos, you will have the table by yourself. You can play without pressure and you will not be bothered by other people who will try force you to roll the dice so they can have their turn. When playing online, you will only play against the house. You can take your time rolling the dice and no one will notice. Most important of all, online Craps will spare you from the noise and rowdiness of drunk players.

Online Craps casinos are always available at any time of the day. The ability to play any time you want is one of the biggest advantages provided by online Craps games. So no matter where you are and when you want to play, the Craps table will always be there for you as long as you have an Internet connection. This is particularly useful for busy individuals who have difficulty finding time to play Craps. You can play after office hours or even during your break time. All you have to do is to log-on to your casino account and start playing a few rounds of Craps. You can also stop playing any time you want and simply resume the game whenever you like it. You can not enjoy this kind of gaming flexibility from real casinos.

Lastly, online Craps casinos offer more lucrative bonuses and free money. It is impossible to get free money from brick and mortar casinos. But with online casinos, providing free money for new customers is a standard business practice. In fact, there are online casinos that offer more than 100 percent deposit match bonus. This means that you will have more money to wager on Craps games. The increased leverage that you can enjoy from the bonus money will also give you more chances of winning big at the tables. And if you do not want to risk real money on the tables, you can simply create a practice account so you can play for fun only. If you are looking for a superior alternative to live games, playing online Craps is your best option.

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Craps Pros and Their Winning Systems

admin — Fri, 08 Oct 2010 18:52:45 +0000

In my other article, Winning Systems, I address the fact that there’s no such thing as a long-term craps “winning system” for the player. It’s a mathematical fact that a player cannot gain an advantage over the house using any combination of bets or bet amounts. Period. Yet I see book after book and article after article explaining a wide variety of systems that so-called “craps pros” use to consistently beat the house. It irritates me knowing that the gambling world recognizes some of these authors as craps “experts.” It irritates me when I read something from a well-respected so-called craps expert who, in reality, spreads false hope instead of fact. It irritates me knowing the Industry acknowledges and flaunts these people as skilled and knowledgeable players. It all boils down to money. False hope and dreams of hitting it big sell books and magazines. The reality that the game is designed for the player to lose doesn’t sell squat. In other words, in the gaming world, B.S. sells and reality doesn’t. One can only conclude that some of these authors either aren’t the experts that Industry acknowledges them to be, or they’re selling manure for an easy buck.

Search the Internet for craps articles and you’ll find tons of them. Some factual, some full of bull. Some by unknown authors, some by well-known Industry leaders who have multi-book titles to their credit and routinely write for magazines and newsletters. Some authors do, indeed, explain game facts honestly and correctly. However, too often, some so-called experts apparently feel no shame in spreading false hope.

For example, I just finished reading a series of articles by a well-known author with several book titles in print and a long list of other writing credits. He talks about using wacky systems to make a profit for almost every bet on the table, even those with high house advantages. The fact is that none of those systems can guarantee the player long-term wins. As explained in my article, Variance, distribution variance is the only thing that allows a player to win in the short-term. Let’s examine one of these so-called winning systems that so-called pros use to make money: Place betting the 6 and 8.

The author’s scheme is to Place bet both the 6 and 8, then wait until one of them hits and turn them both off (i.e., make them not working) because a 7 is more likely to appear before another 6 or 8. If five rolls go by without hitting a 6 or 8 and without hitting a 7, then turn both bets off because the 7 is due to hit. After a 7 appears, then Place bet the 6 and 8 again. The author ends his article by offering false hope that this system will be profitable for the player only if the player has discipline to stick to the method without making any other bets.

Your first clue that the author clearly isn’t the expert that his credentials imply is the reliance on the “Gambler’s Fallacy” (see my article, The Gambler’s Fallacy). This system considers a 7 is “due” to hit if it doesn’t show in five rolls or if a 6 or 8 shows first. We know this is absurd because the odds of any number appearing on the next roll are the same whether the number hasn’t appeared after five rolls or after a million rolls. Since the odds never change, it doesn’t matter how many times you turn off your Place bets. You can leave them on constantly, or turn them off and back on every other roll. It doesn’t matter, the odds never change. Let’s look at the math associated with Place betting the 6 and 8.

Over many rolls, results tend to resemble a perfect distribution. Assuming a perfect distribution over 36 rolls, we expect a 7 to appear six times, a 6 to appear five times, and an 8 to appear five times. Because the odds for any number appearing on the next roll never change, the odds of your Place bets winning and losing are the same whether you leave them on constantly or whether you randomly turn them off and on.

Assume you bet $6 on the 6 and $6 on the 8 for a total of $12. Assuming a perfect distribution, the 6 will appear five times in 36 rolls and you win $35 (5 x $7 = $35). The 8 will appear five times in those 36 rolls and you win $35 (5 x $7 = $35. Therefore, in a 36-roll perfect distribution, you win $70 by Place betting the 6 and 8 for $6 each. (Note: for a $6 Place bet on the 6 or 8, the Place odds are 7:6, which means you win $7 for your $6 bet.)

However, on six out of those 36 rolls, a 7 will appear and you lose $72 ($6 on the 6 and $6 on the 8 = $12; then $12 x 6 = $72).

The negative expectation with this system (i.e., Place betting the 6 and 8 for $6 each) is that you lose an average of $2 for every 36 rolls (i.e., you win $70, but you lose $72).

This is actually a good system, in terms of the player, because of the low house advantages of the Place 6 and 8 bets. However, it’s clear that this system cannot guarantee long-term success. It’s statistically impossible. In other words, despite the author’s claim that this system will prove to be very profitable for you, the statistical fact is that is won’t over the long-term.

So, the question you should ask yourself now is: If this system relies on the false notion of the Gambler’s Fallacy, and if this system is statistically proven to result in a player loss over the long-term, why is this so-called craps expert feeding me such bull manure by saying it will prove to be very profitable for me? I think I know the answer to that question, and I think you do, too. Could the answer have anything to do with selling books and articles?

Remember, be smart. Play smart. Don’t fall for bogus claims of winning systems or wacky dice dice-setting schemes. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: the Gambler’s Fallacy

admin — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 18:52:47 +0000

The “gambler’s fallacy” is the false belief that fixed odds increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences. Let’s use the familiar coin-flip example to illustrate this concept. Assuming we use a fair coin and a fair flip, we expect a 50% chance that heads will appear and a 50% chance that tails will appear. Those odds are fixed and will never change. Suppose heads appears five times in a row. If you think tails has a better chance of appearing on the next flip because it hasn’t shown for the last five flips (i.e., you think tails is “due”), then you’ve fallen for the gambler’s fallacy. You must understand that results of previous flips have no influence on the outcome of future flips.

In craps, the dice have no memory. They don’t remember how they landed on the last roll. They don’t care if they haven’t shown a 7 in the last 50 rolls or even a million rolls. The odds of any number showing remain constant and are never influenced by what occurred previously.

Have you seen the big tote board by a roulette wheel showing the results of the last 10 or 15 rolls? It not only shows the recent numbers that hit, but also the colors (i.e., red or black). Almost every roulette wheel in every casino on the planet has a tote board. What purpose does that thing serve for either the player or the casino?

It doesn’t serve the player any purpose other to sucker him into making a bet that he wouldn’t otherwise make. It serves the casino’s ultimate purpose of taking advantage of the gambler’s fallacy and getting more bets in play. The more bets in play, the more money the casino makes. The casino has one key goal: get you to make as many bets as possible. The casino knows its profits go up as your number of bets goes up. The sole purpose of the tote board is to get you to make a bet that you normally wouldn’t make.

Suppose a husband and wife stroll through the casino on their way to dinner with no intention of stopping to gamble. They approach the table-games area and see on a particular roulette wheel’s tote board that the color red appeared on the last six rolls. The guy points to the wheel and says, “Look, dear, black is due for that wheel. Let’s try it!” The tote board just did its job. It suckered the guy into making a bet that he wouldn’t have made had he not known that red appeared six times in a row. Yeah, sure, black is “due” all right. Wrong! The little ball doesn’t know it landed on red the last six times. It only knows that both red and black have an equal chance of appearing on the next roll. It doesn’t influence itself to land on any particular number or color because of past occurrences.

Suppose your craps system tells you to Lay the 4 for $50 only after the number 4 hits three times in a row. Your system is based on the belief, if the number 4 shows three times in a row, then chances are that a 7 will appear before another 4. Is this a good, smart bet? Is this simple system good or bad?

Yes, it’s definitely a good bet, and this system is an acceptable way to play if you don’t mind getting bored to death. You think, “Huh? You’re either nuts or full of crap because you just finished saying the dice have no memory, and future outcomes aren’t influenced by previous ones. Therefore, how can that be a good, smart bet?” Calm down, let me explain.

In this example, you make a bet only after the number 4 has appeared three times in a row. You’re a knowledgeable player, a disciplined rock, one who sticks to your system and doesn’t allow emotion to cause you to deviate. Making a Lay 4 bet under those specific conditions doesn’t make your odds of winning or losing any different than another person making a Lay 4 bet at any other random time. Regardless of when or under what circumstances you make the bet, the odds don’t change. The Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win always has a 1.64% house advantage. It doesn’t matter whether you make the bet only after the number 4 has appeared three times in a row, or only when the shooter takes a swig of beer, or only when there’s a full moon. The odds never change.

However, although the Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win is considered a good bet because of its low house advantage, it’s possible to regard it as bad under certain circumstances. Let’s look at another example.

Suppose your system doesn’t include the Lay 4 bet. Under no circumstances does it tell you to make a Lay 4 bet. Suppose the number 4 appears eight times in a row. The hot babe next to you falling out of her halter top says, “There’s no way a four will hit again. We should bet against it. What do you think?” You respond, “No thanks, I’ll stick to my system. It’s been good to me so far.” She wiggles a bit and says, “Oh, come on, I don’t want to be the only one hoping for a seven.” Her jiggling causes you to lose focus, so you say, “Maybe you’re right. Another four can’t possibly hit again. Let’s go for it!”

This is a situation where a good bet can be a bad thing. The key is that you allowed yourself to risk more money than you had originally planned because of the gambler’s fallacy (and partly because you couldn’t say no to the bimbo next to you). Remember, the more bets you make, the more the casino wins. So, adding more bets to your plan–even though they may be considered good because of their low house advantages–can be hazardous to your bankroll.

Let’s revisit the example of the couple strolling through the casino. Suppose the couple were in their hotel room before going down to dinner. As the guy brushes his hair, he says to his wife, “Is it okay if we stop at the roulette wheel so I can make a quick five-dollar bet?” His wife responds, “Sure, but we have reservations and we can’t be late.” They stroll through the casino and approach the roulette wheel. The guy sees that red has appeared six times in a row and, as a result, decides to bet $5 on black (he thinks black is “due”).

Under these circumstances, using the tote board to influence his bet is harmless. Regardless of what bet he makes (black, red, even, odd, etc.), the house still has about a 5% advantage. The guy came to the table intending to make a $5 bet, so the results displayed on the tote board weren’t the trigger that influenced his decision to make the bet. In this example, although the guy’s belief in the gambler’s fallacy influenced him to bet on black, the gambler’s fallacy didn’t trigger him into making the bet (he had already intended to make the bet before leaving his hotel room). The gambler’s fallacy does its job only when it influences you to make a bet that you normally wouldn’t make.

The moral is, don’t let the gambler’s fallacy cause you to make bets that you normally wouldn’t. If you still believe that previous results influence future results and–here’s the important part–if this belief causes you to risk more money than you intended, then you’re playing a dangerous game. Play smart. Be a rock. Don’t fall for the gambler’s fallacy. Don’t let it cause you to put more money at risk than you had planned or that you can afford to lose. If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Winning Systems

admin — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 18:52:46 +0000

If anyone says or writes that he has a consistently “winning” craps system, he’s either lying to swindle you or too stupid to know better. No consistently winning craps system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist. Understand? None. Don’t ever let anyone persuade you otherwise.

Most systems spread false hope. They hardly ever change as they go from book to book and article to article. Authors often prey on your greed, your hope for an easy score. As with everything else that offers people a quick buck, these shysters take from the stupid and give to themselves. Their “winning” systems focus on consistently beating the house, which I prove in my eBook, The Secret to Craps: The Right Way to Play, can’t be done over time. How many of you are experienced craps players and tried these systems at some point in your playing life? Be honest. How many of you went to Vegas with high hopes of winning thousands using your new found, sure-fire, “winning” system that cost you $85 on the Internet? And, after playing your wonderful “winning” system, how many of you returned home a loser? Be honest.

You shouldn’t play craps expecting to win over time. If you do have a winning session or short-term winning streak, consider yourself lucky for experiencing a distribution variance that favored you at that particular time. If a consistently “winning” system ever did exist, the casinos would have gone belly up years ago. Well, not really. Instead of going belly up, the instant some genius figured out a winning combination of bets (i.e., gained a player advantage), the casinos would have changed the rules to bring the advantage back to them.

All craps systems are simply combinations of bets supplemented with wacky betting schemes. Most sound impressive, scientific, and feasible. Some are simple, some complex. The fact is, no matter what bets you combine and betting patterns you apply, you can’t overcome the house advantage. No hedge-bet method (i.e., combination of bet types and bet amounts) will ever change the negative expectation to result in a player advantage. The best you can hope for is to minimize the house advantage, maximize your fun, and hope like heck you hit a “Nirvana hiccup” (explained in my article titled Variance).

You think, “This is depressing! Why do people play this game?” The ignorant and arrogant players truly believe they can either beat the house, they possess some kind of supernatural mojo that affects the dice, or they believe in the silly notion of dice setting. However, the knowledgeable player plays for one basic reason–it’s so much fun. The knowledgeable player knows he’s supposed to lose over time. This acknowledgement allows the player to enjoy the game without worrying about winning. If he loses a session, it’s paid entertainment. If he wins a session, he knows he’ll probably lose it during a future session. The interaction with people, the range of emotion, and the thrill of the hot roll are what bring the knowledgeable player back again and again.

If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!