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Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Load of Crap: Part 1

admin — Sun, 05 Dec 2010 18:52:05 +0000

I got the idea for this article while writing about dice setting. (If you’ve read the free sample chapter from my eBook on my website, you’ll know what I think about dice setting.) I thought about the ridiculous things (and sometimes downright lies) people say to separate you from your money. I thought about the shysters who spread their misguided and oftentimes flat-out wrong advice for beating the house. Then, I thought about the unfortunate who fall for such bogus claims and advice.

This article gives a small sample of the load of crap (pun intended) from various craps-related websites, followed by brief analyses of the sheer stupidity or dubious nature of their claims. If it weren’t for the sad fact that people actually believe such crap, we’d find it entertaining. Learn from this article. Once and for all, get it through your head that craps is designed for you to lose. No system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist that will produce long-term gains for the player. The player cannot in any way gain a long-term advantage over the house, and that includes the latest trends in get-rich schemes that focus on dice setting. Don’t be a sucker. Learn to play in reality, not in fantasyland.

I took the following excerpts directly from some of the websites I scanned for 10 minutes after searching for “learn craps.” These excerpts are not from blogs, forums, or discussion groups; they’re from sites that sell craps-related products. My analyses and criticisms are based on my opinion and deemed valid until proven otherwise by a qualified and independent body.

Excerpt: “In my humble opinion, the pass line (and come) are the worst bets on the table. I understand about the 1.4% advantage and all, but has anyone actually calculated odds against, after the come out? I found two books a long time ago that stated the average against you, on the pass line after a point is established, is around 34-35%. That is to say, the odds against ‘repeating’ the point before a 7.”

Analysis: This excerpt was taken from an article intended to provide tips and strategies or playing craps. In justifying his opinion that the Flat Pass Line and Flat Come bets are the worst bets on the table, the writer removes the come-out roll from the equation. That seems absurd. The house advantage on these two bets is so low because of the player’s 2:1 advantage on the come-out roll. Indeed, the advantage shifts back to the house after the come-out, but that advantage can never shift without first going through the come-out, so trying to disregard it seems ridiculous.

Excerpt: “The only good bet is the place bets—and only for the 2 reasons, one they can be taken down at any time, and second you pick your numbers. The odds are much much much better when you try to throw one number instead of repeating it before a seven, and that is what people don’t understand. What they also don’t understand is that the seven should mathematically come up one out of every six rolls—and that is all rolls, not just box number rolls, but all of them. If someone walked up to a table and threw 2, 3, 12, 11, 2, 3, 11, 12, 2, 3, 11, 2, 12, 12, 2, his odds of throwing a seven are greater then the guy who throws 5, 6, 8, 9. How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention.”

Analysis: This excerpt is from the same article as the first excerpt. Remember, this author supposedly knows the game and is passing his wisdom to you. Where do I start? The author’s reasoning is based on the silly–and completely false–notion that outcomes of previous rolls influence future rolls. The author apparently believes in the Gambler’s Fallacy. By the believing in the Gambler’s Fallacy, the author proves his ignorance. No matter how many times a player rolls the dice, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll never change. So, the player throwing 14 rolls without hitting a 7 has the same odds of rolling a 7 on the next roll as the player who throws only four rolls without hitting a 7. The odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll for both players are exactly the same. Even if you rolled a million times without a 7 appearing, the odds of a 7 appearing on the next roll are exactly the same as if you had rolled only once. Results of previous rolls have no influence whatsoever on the odds of future rolls. The guy in the excerpt wonders, “How many times do people at a crap table stand there and not even pay attention?” I can’t help but laugh and wonder how many screws this guy has loose. The truly sad thing is that people read this guy’s baloney, take it to be true, and then base their bets on it.

Excerpt: “This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public. When applied according to the rules presented, it is the most consistent money making craps method you are going to find and can reduce your risk of loss to less than 6%.”

Analysis: You can play the Pass Line with Odds (or Don’t Pass with Odds) and give the house an advantage of only about 1%. Lots of craps bets have house advantages much less than 6%, so touting a 6% risk of loss seems silly to me. I chuckled at the statement, “This is a proven professional method, used by experts, that until now has been kept secret from the public.” Yeah, okay, sure. LOL (laugh out loud). The following excerpt is taken from the same website.

Excerpt: “—As with any educational or entertainment program, results may vary and [name redacted] and its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result. Purchasers of the [name redacted] are encouraged to rigorously test and personally verify results before wagering on an outcome. All gambling involves risk no matter how good the method might be. Purchasers are advised to use the [name redacted] responsibly, implement a sound money management system, and wager only with funds that will not seriously affect their lifestyle or that of others closely associated with them.”

Analysis: Again, I laughed. The website cleverly hooks you with claims of having a “professional” and “most consistent money-making” craps system. It fills you with hopes and dreams of beating the crap out of the casino. Then, after suckering you in, they cover their rear ends by including a disclaimer stating, “—its owners assume no liability for its use or any loss that may result.” I suspect that buyers of that bogus system never make it to the bottom of the web page to read the disclaimer. They’re so hyped up on false hope of beating the casino for ga-zillions, they’ve already clicked the “Buy” button before getting anywhere near the disclaimer. If the system is so “professional” and if it truly is the “most consistent money-making craps method,” why do they need to cover their rear ends with a disclaimer? Makes you wonder, doesn’t it? Don’t get conned into buying bogus winning systems. Learn to recognize bull manure. Don’t get suckered into believing you can consistently beat the casino over time. You can’t and won’t. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

The next excerpt is lengthy, but I included it because I’m sure it’ll entertain you as much as it did me.

Excerpt: “Here is a simple craps strategy that takes no skill and only two of the same bets each time you play. The writer of this method has never failed to make at least $200 per hour using this strategy. Now, with this report, you can do the same at any dice table anywhere in the world! This craps strategy has been kept within the inner circle of casino bangers for years – under a mutual gentlemen’s agreement. We tried the [name redacted] on randomized computer print-outs and couldn’t come close to losing through 8000 decisions! (Think how long you would have to stand at the tables for 8000 decisions.) We tried it at several casinos in Atlantic City, Vegas, Reno, and Tahoe. The damned thing just would not lose! With this system you won’t care if the tables are hot or cold—you still win with this super craps strategy! A new shooter can throw three or four or more craps in a row and you win! A new shooter can throw three or four or more sevens in a row and you still win! A new shooter rolls a point, and sevens out on the next roll. Shooter after shooter can do this, and you still win! A shooter can throw 14 passes, or more or less, in a row, and you still win! A bunch of players in a row, can seven out after any amount of numbers, and you still win! Read this report and you’ll find out that there is absolutely no roll of the dice that can hurt you with this system! Want to collect on every roll of the dice? Here is how to do it with four easy bets. Follow this method exactly and you’ll go home a winner everyday!”

Analysis: Woohoo! Is this the Holy Grail, the Fountain of Youth, the mother of all systems that has eluded mankind forever? Woohoo! LOL. Yeah, right. Let me get this straight—no skill required—only need to make two bets at a time—and no matter what happens, I can win $200 per hour? Woohoo! I better hurry up and buy this system before the “casino bangers” put it back in their “inner circle” under lock and key and stop offering it to the paying public. Do I really need to analyze this mumbo-jumbo? Does anyone actually believe this crapola? Sadly, people apparently do, or the website probably wouldn’t exist.

Excerpt: “I’m so positive that I can easily convert you from an inexperienced player into a master player with the skills of a pro that you may try all of my methods risk-free! I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play! Take up to a full year to learn, practice, and profit. Just remember, if your average daily winnings don’t add up to several hundred dollars, don’t forget that I will give you a 100% refund. It’s that simple.”

Analysis: This is from the same website as the previous excerpt and is typical of the guarantee that comes with many so-called winning craps systems. Read the words carefully. Let’s analyze them. “—you may try all of my methods risk-free.” It’s risk-free because the seller offers a full refund, not because the system consistently wins over time. “I personally guarantee these craps systems will work at any casino you play.” Of course, they’ll work, but will they win? Anyone can use any crazy system and it’ll “work.” The word “work” in this context simply means the system is a legitimate method for playing the game whether you win or lose with it. In the excerpt, if the word “work” were replaced with the word “win,” then the seller would be at great risk because no system will consistently win over time. “—don’t forget that I will give you a 100% refund.” Remember, the guarantee is that you can get your money back, not that the system will consistently win. The problem with these kinds of guarantees is that many people either simply forget or don’t try to get the refund after losing their shirts, or they try but get delayed so long they get disgusted and give up. The moral is, be skeptical of craps systems that come with guarantees. Ensure you fully understand the guarantee before buying. Focus on whether the craps system is guaranteed to win, or whether you’re guaranteed to get to your money back after you lose your rear end. Note the carefully chosen words and understand their meanings, such as “can” instead of “will.” One small word can, and usually will, make a big difference in the meaning of a sentence or an entire paragraph.

Starting to get the picture? Scams are everywhere. Don’t be a sucker. Don’t let your dreams of winning big blind you. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps. Read Part 2 of this article for even sillier claims and bigger laughs.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Dealer Tokes

admin — Sat, 04 Dec 2010 18:52:29 +0000

You think, “Tip the dealers? What? Losing money to the casino isn’t enough, now you tell me I have to give money to the dealers?” Yes, you should tip dealers, especially when they’re helpful. In the casino business, a “toke” is a tip. Dealers call tippers “George” or “live,” and non-tippers “stiffs.”

Dealers typically work for minimum wage (or close to it) plus tips. I compare them to restaurant servers because they provide a service and they rely on tips for their livelihood. The service that dealers provide includes properly handling your bets and winnings, answering questions about the game, being courteous and friendly, and just making your craps play more enjoyable.

Craps dealers typically share tips instead of keeping what they get. This makes your job of tipping a bit trickier. Ideally, you want to maximize tips for good dealers and minimize tips for bad ones. In terms of craps dealers, “good” versus “bad” isn’t necessarily a measure of skill. If a dealer is friendly, respectful, attentive, and funny, I won’t reproach him for being slow (he may be slow because, for example, he’s new on the job). I’d much rather be in a slow game with fun dealers than a fast game with dealers who are mannequins when they aren’t handling chips.

If craps dealers share tips, how do ensure yours goes to the good ones? You can’t. If I’m disappointed in a dealer’s service, I ensure his colleagues know I’m disappointed. When the bad one takes a break and a good one replaces him, I politely tell the good one something like, “I don’t know if Fred is having a bad day or what, but he’s been downright mean to the newbie on the hook.” The dealer knows I’ve been tipping well and he usually gets the hint that Fred ought to lighten up if they want me to continue tipping. Because dealers’ income depends on player tips, the good dealer won’t hesitate to insist that the lousy one get his act together. The good one knows, if I stop tipping, maybe others will, too.

If you’re losing during a particular session, it’s not the dealers’ fault, so don’t blame them. It’s not easy to tip while losing, but you shouldn’t base your tipping on your gambling success (or failure). When losing, if you can’t keep the same tipping pace as when you’re winning, simply slow down, but don’t stop it altogether. Always remember that you give tips for good service, not for your success at the table.

For whatever reason, most craps players don’t tip at all. I don’t know if it’s because of stinginess or just plain ignorance. Usually, you’re the only one tipping. Although not good for the dealers, that’s great for you. It means you get all the dealers’ attention and reap all the rewards. Rewards? Absolutely, positively, undeniably yes! Learning how and when to tip, as well as how you’ll benefit from tipping are part of learning the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Craps Terms (Part 5)

admin — Sat, 13 Nov 2010 18:52:53 +0000

Continuing our tutorial on learning the numerous craps terms, let’s start where we left off in Part 4. The following terms cover the letters P to R in alphabetical order. Craps terms beginning with other letters are defined in my other articles.

Parlay = Keep all your winnings in action by adding all the winnings of a particular bet to that original bet.
Pass Line = A bet that the shooter will make the point.
Past Posting = Making a bet after the dice have stopped rolling.
Penny = $1 cheques.
Penny Any = A $1 Any Craps bet.
Pips = The dots on a die.
Pit = The area around which all tables are situated. Where the floor people monitor the tables and employees.
Place = A bet that a specific number (i.e., 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) will appear before a 7.
Player’s Card = A casino club card issued to a player that the player uses while gambling so the casino can track the player’s play for comp and other business purposes.
Player Position = Each player’s position at the table. Typically a maximum of eight players per side. Positions are sequenced 1 through 8 starting at the stickman and moving around the rail to the dealer.
Point = The number that appears on the come-out roll, either a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10. For a Pass Line bet, the shooter wins by rolling that same number again before a 7.
Point Box = The boxes for the numbers 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10 in or around which Place bets, Come bets, Don’t Come bets, Buy bets, and Lay bets are positioned.
Point Number = A box number.
Press = Double the bet.
Pressure = To press a bet.
Proposition Bet = A one-roll bet typically identified in the layout on the center of the table.
Puck = The plastic disk the dealers use to mark the point. The white side reads “on,” the black side reads “off.”
Purple = $500 cheques.
Quarter = A $25 cheque.
Rack = The grooved rail around the edge of the table where players hold their cheques.
Red Light = Dealers aren’t allowed to hustle tips.
Rhythmic Roller = A dice setter.
Right Bettor = A player who bets with the dice (i.e., that the shooter will make a point before a 7). A Pass Line bettor.

Virtual Gambling and Online Casinos

admin — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 18:52:54 +0000

One of the fastest growing market industries on the net is online gambling or online casinos. Ever since the boom of the internet technology, the main staple of our everyday lives involves the World Wide Web. Our lives have been made much easier because of this internet technology phenomenon. Now we can do almost everything online, banking, shopping, paying our bills, buy concert tickets, correspond with a distant relative and a lot, lot more. One of the best things is being able to play casinos online. The new trend of gambling online gave a whole new meaning to the word casinos.

Currently, the Internet has 452 sites that are related to gambling according to a source in the internet and the counting is still on. One of the most popular magazines about gambling caters to thousands of franchises, subsidiaries, affiliates, and co-branded sites making a worldwide estimation of approximately $49 billion average of the overall market for online gaming. Online casinos have been in practice just recently, a popular and a very controversial practice. Its history started way back in the 90’s as the internet technology weaved its way through the present time.

There are plenty of reviews online of some of the best online casinos ever created. One of the most popular online gambling in the world can be found in just one click of your mouse. Most online casinos have reputations of winning almost all of the awards for being such a great online casinos. These are the most visited casinos online, offering hundreds of online casino games and highest payout rate and huge amounts of bonuses every single month.

Some of these casinos on the web are multi-player poker, multi-player let it ride poker, multi-player craps, multi-player blackjack and multi-player roulette; with tons of multi-line slots offering most exciting bonuses. There are online casinos offering over 25 progressive games plus a million $ jackpot that sometime grows over $35000 a day, making them the most popular online casino jackpot site in the internet. Some of these sites offer millions of downloads, safe and secure debit and credit card transactions, and their casino payouts are monthly reviewed by reputable auditing firms.

There are also online casino sites that openly share everything a potential online gambler would want and should know about their online casinos. That singles them out from other casinos who do not divulge particular information to online gamblers, plenty of options for you to decide on.

If you’re a casino enthusiast and just new to the online world, there will be a lot of sites to choose from. It is a good idea to read some online casinos reviews so you’ll have a little background about the online gambling games you chose. Online casinos sites will provide all the things you have to know about their online games. You can also always go to online casinos directory for the listing of some of the best online gambling site. There are online casinos sites offering tutorials for those who want to know how to play and win online casinos.

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: the Gambler’s Fallacy

admin — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 18:52:47 +0000

The “gambler’s fallacy” is the false belief that fixed odds increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences. Let’s use the familiar coin-flip example to illustrate this concept. Assuming we use a fair coin and a fair flip, we expect a 50% chance that heads will appear and a 50% chance that tails will appear. Those odds are fixed and will never change. Suppose heads appears five times in a row. If you think tails has a better chance of appearing on the next flip because it hasn’t shown for the last five flips (i.e., you think tails is “due”), then you’ve fallen for the gambler’s fallacy. You must understand that results of previous flips have no influence on the outcome of future flips.

In craps, the dice have no memory. They don’t remember how they landed on the last roll. They don’t care if they haven’t shown a 7 in the last 50 rolls or even a million rolls. The odds of any number showing remain constant and are never influenced by what occurred previously.

Have you seen the big tote board by a roulette wheel showing the results of the last 10 or 15 rolls? It not only shows the recent numbers that hit, but also the colors (i.e., red or black). Almost every roulette wheel in every casino on the planet has a tote board. What purpose does that thing serve for either the player or the casino?

It doesn’t serve the player any purpose other to sucker him into making a bet that he wouldn’t otherwise make. It serves the casino’s ultimate purpose of taking advantage of the gambler’s fallacy and getting more bets in play. The more bets in play, the more money the casino makes. The casino has one key goal: get you to make as many bets as possible. The casino knows its profits go up as your number of bets goes up. The sole purpose of the tote board is to get you to make a bet that you normally wouldn’t make.

Suppose a husband and wife stroll through the casino on their way to dinner with no intention of stopping to gamble. They approach the table-games area and see on a particular roulette wheel’s tote board that the color red appeared on the last six rolls. The guy points to the wheel and says, “Look, dear, black is due for that wheel. Let’s try it!” The tote board just did its job. It suckered the guy into making a bet that he wouldn’t have made had he not known that red appeared six times in a row. Yeah, sure, black is “due” all right. Wrong! The little ball doesn’t know it landed on red the last six times. It only knows that both red and black have an equal chance of appearing on the next roll. It doesn’t influence itself to land on any particular number or color because of past occurrences.

Suppose your craps system tells you to Lay the 4 for $50 only after the number 4 hits three times in a row. Your system is based on the belief, if the number 4 shows three times in a row, then chances are that a 7 will appear before another 4. Is this a good, smart bet? Is this simple system good or bad?

Yes, it’s definitely a good bet, and this system is an acceptable way to play if you don’t mind getting bored to death. You think, “Huh? You’re either nuts or full of crap because you just finished saying the dice have no memory, and future outcomes aren’t influenced by previous ones. Therefore, how can that be a good, smart bet?” Calm down, let me explain.

In this example, you make a bet only after the number 4 has appeared three times in a row. You’re a knowledgeable player, a disciplined rock, one who sticks to your system and doesn’t allow emotion to cause you to deviate. Making a Lay 4 bet under those specific conditions doesn’t make your odds of winning or losing any different than another person making a Lay 4 bet at any other random time. Regardless of when or under what circumstances you make the bet, the odds don’t change. The Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win always has a 1.64% house advantage. It doesn’t matter whether you make the bet only after the number 4 has appeared three times in a row, or only when the shooter takes a swig of beer, or only when there’s a full moon. The odds never change.

However, although the Lay 4 bet with a vig after a win is considered a good bet because of its low house advantage, it’s possible to regard it as bad under certain circumstances. Let’s look at another example.

Suppose your system doesn’t include the Lay 4 bet. Under no circumstances does it tell you to make a Lay 4 bet. Suppose the number 4 appears eight times in a row. The hot babe next to you falling out of her halter top says, “There’s no way a four will hit again. We should bet against it. What do you think?” You respond, “No thanks, I’ll stick to my system. It’s been good to me so far.” She wiggles a bit and says, “Oh, come on, I don’t want to be the only one hoping for a seven.” Her jiggling causes you to lose focus, so you say, “Maybe you’re right. Another four can’t possibly hit again. Let’s go for it!”

This is a situation where a good bet can be a bad thing. The key is that you allowed yourself to risk more money than you had originally planned because of the gambler’s fallacy (and partly because you couldn’t say no to the bimbo next to you). Remember, the more bets you make, the more the casino wins. So, adding more bets to your plan–even though they may be considered good because of their low house advantages–can be hazardous to your bankroll.

Let’s revisit the example of the couple strolling through the casino. Suppose the couple were in their hotel room before going down to dinner. As the guy brushes his hair, he says to his wife, “Is it okay if we stop at the roulette wheel so I can make a quick five-dollar bet?” His wife responds, “Sure, but we have reservations and we can’t be late.” They stroll through the casino and approach the roulette wheel. The guy sees that red has appeared six times in a row and, as a result, decides to bet $5 on black (he thinks black is “due”).

Under these circumstances, using the tote board to influence his bet is harmless. Regardless of what bet he makes (black, red, even, odd, etc.), the house still has about a 5% advantage. The guy came to the table intending to make a $5 bet, so the results displayed on the tote board weren’t the trigger that influenced his decision to make the bet. In this example, although the guy’s belief in the gambler’s fallacy influenced him to bet on black, the gambler’s fallacy didn’t trigger him into making the bet (he had already intended to make the bet before leaving his hotel room). The gambler’s fallacy does its job only when it influences you to make a bet that you normally wouldn’t make.

The moral is, don’t let the gambler’s fallacy cause you to make bets that you normally wouldn’t. If you still believe that previous results influence future results and–here’s the important part–if this belief causes you to risk more money than you intended, then you’re playing a dangerous game. Play smart. Be a rock. Don’t fall for the gambler’s fallacy. Don’t let it cause you to put more money at risk than you had planned or that you can afford to lose. If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Winning Systems

admin — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 18:52:46 +0000

If anyone says or writes that he has a consistently “winning” craps system, he’s either lying to swindle you or too stupid to know better. No consistently winning craps system exists, has ever existed, or will ever exist. Understand? None. Don’t ever let anyone persuade you otherwise.

Most systems spread false hope. They hardly ever change as they go from book to book and article to article. Authors often prey on your greed, your hope for an easy score. As with everything else that offers people a quick buck, these shysters take from the stupid and give to themselves. Their “winning” systems focus on consistently beating the house, which I prove in my eBook, The Secret to Craps: The Right Way to Play, can’t be done over time. How many of you are experienced craps players and tried these systems at some point in your playing life? Be honest. How many of you went to Vegas with high hopes of winning thousands using your new found, sure-fire, “winning” system that cost you $85 on the Internet? And, after playing your wonderful “winning” system, how many of you returned home a loser? Be honest.

You shouldn’t play craps expecting to win over time. If you do have a winning session or short-term winning streak, consider yourself lucky for experiencing a distribution variance that favored you at that particular time. If a consistently “winning” system ever did exist, the casinos would have gone belly up years ago. Well, not really. Instead of going belly up, the instant some genius figured out a winning combination of bets (i.e., gained a player advantage), the casinos would have changed the rules to bring the advantage back to them.

All craps systems are simply combinations of bets supplemented with wacky betting schemes. Most sound impressive, scientific, and feasible. Some are simple, some complex. The fact is, no matter what bets you combine and betting patterns you apply, you can’t overcome the house advantage. No hedge-bet method (i.e., combination of bet types and bet amounts) will ever change the negative expectation to result in a player advantage. The best you can hope for is to minimize the house advantage, maximize your fun, and hope like heck you hit a “Nirvana hiccup” (explained in my article titled Variance).

You think, “This is depressing! Why do people play this game?” The ignorant and arrogant players truly believe they can either beat the house, they possess some kind of supernatural mojo that affects the dice, or they believe in the silly notion of dice setting. However, the knowledgeable player plays for one basic reason–it’s so much fun. The knowledgeable player knows he’s supposed to lose over time. This acknowledgement allows the player to enjoy the game without worrying about winning. If he loses a session, it’s paid entertainment. If he wins a session, he knows he’ll probably lose it during a future session. The interaction with people, the range of emotion, and the thrill of the hot roll are what bring the knowledgeable player back again and again.

If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: a Load of Crap: Part 2

admin — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 18:52:03 +0000

This is Part 2 of my article about the load of crap (pun intended) some websites try to feed you to separate you from your money. Don’t fall for it. Be smart. Play smart. Let’s continue with more excerpts that are even more ridiculous than those in Part 1.

Excerpt: “Now for the first time, I’ll show you how you can turn $40 into $50,000 in as little as 87 days with a new system of playing and winning at craps! What the casinos hope you will never find out about playing this elusive game, now it’s possible to win 78% of the time. Using my system, you can win about three times out of four (up to 78% of the time, to be more specific). With my strategies, which are really a combination of the systems of the best pros that I’ve gambled with and learned from over the years, you can pick up everything you need to know to win at craps every time you play. You probably already know that craps is hands downs the best casino game based on the odds. What you may not know is that by using my ten-step system, you can actually turn the odds in your favor! That’s right, using my craps strategies, which I’ve detailed in a brand new report called [name redacted] you can actually beat the house!”

Analysis: This claim seems to me to be as ridiculous as those that promise you can learn dice control. If you learn nothing else from reading my website, my free sample chapter, and my articles, you must understand and accept one important fact: the game is designed for you to lose. It’s mathematically impossible for the player to gain an advantage over the house. Say it out loud, slowly, and let it sink into your brain—-it’s mathematically impossible for the player to gain an edge over the house no matter what combination of bets or bet amounts are used. Therefore, the guy’s statement about his system, “—-you can actually turn the odds in your favor,” is total crap. Period. If the guy’s system relies on dice control to gain the advantage, then run for the hills as quick as you can because you might get run over by another flood of bull manure. After reading my free sample chapter, you know what I think of dice control and dice setting. The phenomenon called “distribution variance” is what allows players to win in the short-term. Nothing else. No fancy system, no silly dice-setting technique, nothing. Got it? The house always wins in the long-term. No player can beat the house over time. You must understand and accept that fact. The truly knowledgeable player plays for the fun, excitement, and the occasional short-term win, not because of any silly belief that he can actually beat the house consistently over time. You must not yield to your strong desire to win an easy buck. Instead, you must be smart, you must play smart, and you must learn the secret to craps. In the excerpt above, the guy states, “—-you can win about three times out of four (up to 78% of the time, to be more specific).” Then, he proudly states, “—-everything you need to know to win at craps every time you play.” This guy can’t even keep his apparent lies straight! In one breath, he says you’ll win three out of four times, and then in his next breath he says you’ll win every time you play. So, which is it? Do you win only 78% of the time that you play or do you win every time you play (i.e., 100%)? LOL (laugh out loud). Remember, don’t be a sucker.

Excerpt: “[Name redacted], the author of [name redacted] system has developed a unique a way to win at the dice table. He is talking about walking away with a handsome win, not breaking the table. The [name redacted] system is a Place bet system designed for a conservative approach to the game of craps. It has an exact play for every roll of the dice. Each and every hit in the [name redacted] system pays you a profit. Each hit puts more money in your pocket. The game of craps was created to make money for the casino. The [name redacted] system makes money for the player. If you’re willing to put in a little bit of time to learn, and apply the rules in a responsible, controlled way you WILL make a profit! You cannot lose in [name redacted]. Order the [name redacted] beginner’s system for $120, delivered by e-mail, or $125 for a printout sent by first class mail.”

Analysis: First of all, if this guy gets $120 for his eBook, then I must be charging way too little for mine! LOL. This guy’s system can’t possibly be a consistent long-term winner because he states that it involves Place bets, all of which have built-in house advantages that you can’t overcome no matter what combinations or amounts of Place bets you make. Because it’s a mathematical fact that no combination of bets (including Place bets) can result in a player advantage, the obvious question you should ask is whether this guy is a total idiot or lying through his teeth to rip you off when he states, “You cannot lose—-.” I still can’t get over the fact that he gets $120 for his eBook. I wonder how many he’s actually sold. You better hurry up and buy my eBook for a measly $9.95 before I jack up the price to a hundred bucks!

Before reading the next excerpt, ensure your Hip Waders are pulled up as high as they can go. Disclaimer: I cannot be held liable in any way if you drown in this guy’s bull manure. Continue reading at your own risk!

Excerpt: “Earn a living playing craps, can it be done? The answer is yes. To date, all of our students average $1,000 to $3,000 a day playing craps and I can show you how you can join the club. Average $100 to $325 per hour every day you play craps using our [name redacted] craps system/strategy. We guarantee it! Even if you have never played the game of craps before, you can learn our [name redacted] system quickly and easily. In fact, we provide the only effective craps system that is capable of winning long term and it is not complicated at all. Fact: Our craps system is so good, that you will make a bare minimum of $1000 the very first day you use it, or you are entitled to a 100% money back guarantee. Please note, we did not say ‘might be able to make $1000,’ we said ‘every single person who has used our system makes an average of $1000 or $3000 per day, every day that they choose to play.’ Our most advanced players average from $900 to $1500 per hour!”

Analysis: I think this guy’s load of crap is hysterical. Let’s see if I understand it correctly: it’s the only effective system capable of winning long-term, it’s not complicated, you can learn it quickly and easily, it’s guaranteed, the beginner can win up to $3,000 per day every day, and the advanced player can win up $1,500 per hour every day (which equates to $15,000 per 10-hour day). Woohoo! This is a get-rich-quick sucker’s dream come true. It’s easy to learn (no effort or energy needed) and as a beginner you can win up to $3,000 per day every day, which means you can make more than $1,000,000 per year with minimal effort, minimal skill, and minimal knowledge. Well, golly gee wilickers! We better run out and buy this system right now because every hour we wait, we lose $325. No analysis of this excerpt is needed. If it doesn’t seem absurd to you, then you deserve to lose your shirt.

Excerpt: “The preferred grip for you is the one that you feel the most comfortable with, has the least amount of friction and skin on the dice, and that produces the best results for you personally. You will need to practice as much as possible to produce the best results. Before you go to a casino for a session, practice on your practice box, or in the hotel drawer just for a warm up to see how your throw is today, before the session. This will save you a lot of units and help save your bankroll!”

Analysis: This excerpt addresses the wonderful world of dice-setting—-a world, in my opinion, called Fantasyland. One short sentence should be enough for you to realize the bull manure this guy is feeding you. “Before you go to a casino for a session, practice on your practice box, or in the hotel drawer just for a warm up to see how your throw is today, before the session.” What? A hotel dresser drawer? Good grief. Even the dumbest moron should realize how stupid that is. A hotel dresser drawer doesn’t have the same bounce characteristics and friction coefficient as a craps table, and a dresser drawer doesn’t have the little pointy rubber pyramids (spikes) on the back wall that a craps table has. So, how could practicing in a three-foot-wide dresser drawer foretell anything about how your toss will be on a 12-foot craps table? In my opinion, this easily rates as one the dumbest statements I’ve ever read. When you read nonsense like that, it should raise a red flag for you to be cautious of the rest of the crap the guy is trying to sell you.

The following are several excerpts combined into one. I found them embedded throughout a well-liked and respected craps-related website. Personally, I don’t know why it’s so respected because, in my opinion, it has no legitimacy. It deals with dice setting. To understand my disdain for the idea of dice setting, please read the free sample chapter of my eBook that’s included on my website.

Excerpts from the dice-setting website: “Craps can be beaten—-. There is only one way to beat craps in the long run and that is through precision shooting and dice control—-. Craps can be beaten by changing the nature of the game from a mathematical and random contest, where the casino has built in the edge for itself, to a physical contest, where the person who shoots the dice can gain the edge by skill—-. Dice control is a physical skill that can be learned by disciplined players who are willing to practice and perfect the techniques we teach them… Our teachers are the greatest dice control specialists in the world, many with books and major publications to their credit, all with years of winning casino experience behind them—-. This craps strategy is called dice control, precision shooting, or rhythmic rolling—-. There are no ‘board certified’ dice controllers yet. Everyone is self-certified; that is to say, you have to take them at their word—-. The [name redacted] board of directors wanted [name redacted] to have the highest standards of excellence in the budding field of dice control. To do this, we set up tough criteria for our instructors and coaches to meet. They had to be skilled shooters and good teachers—-. These criteria have been established to standardize and elevate the teaching of dice control by subjecting our teachers to a rigorous certification process that makes sure they understand, can demonstrate and can effectively teach all the essential areas of our curriculum.”

Analysis: For analysis of this claim, and all other claims about the merits of dice control, read the free sample chapter of my eBook on my website. In the sample chapter, I don’t go into detail about the certification of so-called dice-control specialists, so I’ll talk a bit about it here. I must admit, this guy’s website is well-written and I respect the writer, not because I agree with the message, but because I like the writing. The author did a particularly wonderful job dreaming up and explaining the certification process. The idea actually sounds legitimate. However, in my opinion, it’s simply a well-crafted and well-written part of an elaborate scheme to separate you from your money. The author goes into a lengthy excuse for the fact that the certification program for their dice-control instructors was developed, executed, and managed by the same people trying to sell you the product. The sophisticated excuse does a fantastic job of explaining why no independent authority exists that can administer the certification process. I suggest that you think twice about the validity of the explanation. Any certification process not developed, executed, and administered by an independent organization should immediately raise a red flag in your brain. If the certification authority is the same bunch who’s selling the product, it’s like sending the fox to guard the hen house. In my opinion, the reason an independent organization still doesn’t exist after so many years since the idea of dice setting was born is because dice setting can’t be proven to be legitimate over the long-term. (Read the free sample chapter to find out why I feel this way.) In the 30 or 40 years that so-called dice-control specialists have been around, surely some entrepreneur somewhere would have formed an independent organization to test and certify dice setters. However, according to the excerpt, no such independent organization exists. Makes you wonder doesn’t it?

As these excerpts show, the Internet (and many books, magazine articles, and other resources) is crammed full of ridiculous claims designed for one thing—to get your money. If you want to play craps, you must get over your blazing desire to make an easy buck. You must plant yourself in reality. You must learn to play smart. You must accept the fact that no craps system exists that allows you to gain an advantage over the casino. Don’t fall for bogus strategies and wacky dice-setting schemes that claim they can consistently win you tons of money. Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps. Armed with facts instead of false hope, you’ll be a strong weapon against the casino.

Now you know!

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Variance

admin — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 18:52:46 +0000

If the casino has such an advantage over the player, why on Earth does anyone play the game? My guess is that most people don’t have a clue they’re playing a losing game. Others are so arrogant they think they can outplay the casino and turn a negative expectation into a positive, even over the long term. Others know they’ll lose, but play anyway for fun and excitement. As a knowledgeable player, why should you even bother playing a game you know will beat you? As a knowledgeable player, is there any hope you can walk away a winner, at least once in a while, even though you’re at a statistical disadvantage?

Craps is a game of numbers and statistics, with the house having a built-in advantage. Since craps is based on statistics, let’s find a way to use statistics to our advantage. You’ll never beat the casino over the long haul, but you can, indeed, beat it in the moments of time when the distribution hiccups and things go your way.

Let’s talk about “variance,” which is the average squared deviation of each number from the mean of a data set. Huh? Don’t worry; we don’t need a Harvard math degree to understand this. It’s simply a measure of how spread out the data is. Let’s consider the familiar coin-flip example.

Suppose we flip a coin 10,000 times. We expect heads to appear about 5,000 times and tails to appear about 5,000 times. Suppose we bet $1 on heads for each flip. If these are even-money bets, we expect to break even–or close to it after those 10,000 flips. As illustrated in one of my other articles, the house doesn’t give us even money when it loses. In our coin-flip example, instead of paying us $1 for each loss, suppose they pay us only $0.96. With this built-in house advantage, our negative expectation is to lose about $200 after 10,000 flips. Here’s the math. If we expect about 5,000 heads and about 5,000 tails to appear, then we expect to lose 5000 x $1 = $5000; and win 5000 x $0.96 = $4800. $5000 – $4800 = $200. This is called “negative expectation.”

Now, of those 10,000 flips, suppose we focus on only 30 of them, and we continue betting on heads. Of those 30 flips, we might see heads 25 times and tails only 5 times. This data fluctuation shows that, for a limited number of flips over a short period of time, we can get lucky and experience Nirvana where things go our way. I call it a “Nirvana hiccup” in the distribution that causes a relatively high variance. In this example of only 30 flips, we win $24 for the 25 heads (i.e., 25 x $0.96 = $24), and lose $5 for the 5 tails (i.e., 5 x $1 = $5), which gives us a net win of $19. This short term variance temporarily removes the long-term negative expectation, which means there are, indeed, times when we can walk away a winner.

Although you’ll lose in the long-term, there are times when you’ll win because of variance. Suppose you take a three day vacation in Vegas once a year and play four one hour craps sessions each day (i.e., a total of 12 hours for the trip). You could conceivably get extremely lucky and hit that Nirvana hiccup during each session, and then go home a big winner. In that case, you go home thinking you’re a genius, a craps god, invincible, a world-class gambling stud. Yeah, sure, okay. I don’t recommend quitting your day job.

Now, suppose you’re a Vegas local who plays an hour every day after work. In this case, it’s clear that whatever few Nirvana hiccups you experience will be properly adjusted over time such that you’ll lose your shirt in the long-term.

Therefore, the infrequent craps player can, indeed, consistently win if she’s lucky enough to hit those Nirvana hiccups. However, the frequent long term player has no chance of coming out a winner at the end of his craps life. Part of the secret to craps is knowing how to be around for those occasional Nirvana hiccups where the dice fall your way.

If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Distribution variance is the only thing that makes you a short-term winner. Nothing else. No silly dice setting technique. No bogus winning system. It’s the distribution variance and nothing else. Got it? Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

Clear Your Casino Bonus by Playing Online Craps

admin — Tue, 23 Mar 2010 13:22:22 +0000

Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way!

Many online casinos offer free casino bonuses to play on their site. The problem is, you can’t cash-out or withdraw any of that bonus money until you meet their minimum betting requirements or minimum playing time. So, how do you gamble with their free money and have enough left over to actually have a profit?

Gambling is exactly that–gambling. The house always has the advantage, so you’ll likely lose not only the free money that the online casino gives you as a bonus to get you to play on their site, but they’re counting on you to pull out your credit card and deposit some of your own money and then lose that as well. The secret to meeting the online casino’s betting requirement (a.k.a. “clearing the online casino bonus”) is to play the games that have the lowest house advantage and hope luck is on your side for the brief moment of time that you play with their money. Craps is an online game you might want to consider playing to clear that bonus.

Craps is fast-paced. Online craps is even faster. You can play the bets with the lowest house advantage and not have to wait for slow dealers or other delays that you definitely experience at live craps tables. You can make your bets and roll the dice quickly. The quicker you play, the quicker you can meet your playing or betting requirement.

Craps also has one of the lowest house advantages of all casino games. For example, the simple Pass Line bet has a house advantage of only 1.41%. The Pass Line with single odds bet has a house advantage of only 0.85%. That’s less than 1%. The Place bet on the number 6 or 8 has a house advantage of only 1.52%. So, it’s easy to see that you can make bets with low house advantages and still be fairly close to a 50-50 game. Always remember though, with a house advantage (even small ones), you’re going to lose over the long-term. Be careful not to make bets that have high house advantages. Some craps bets have a house advantage as high as 16.67%. Wow! That’s a true sucker bet! You must understand the game and know which bets are “good” in terms of low house advantage and which bets are “bad” in terms of high house advantage. I consider craps bets with house advantages below 2% as “good” bets, and those with house advantages above 4% as “bad” bets. The bets between 2% and 4% are what I call “maybe” bets, but I usually don’t play them. I always stick to the bets with the lowest house advantage, and you should, too.

If you combine the fast play of craps with its low house advantages on certain bets, it’s easy to see how you can quickly clear your online casino bonus. If you’re lucky during that short playing time, you might even have some of their free money left over after you clear the bonus, which means you can cash-out for a profit.

The key is not to expect to win all the time. Most of the time, you’ll probably lose your free bonus before you meet the betting requirement. Then, when you do lose all their free bonus money, don’t dig into your wallet for your credit card and don’t deposit your own money.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play craps the right way.

Which is Better: Online Craps or Live Casino Craps?

admin — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 13:22:19 +0000

Online gambling is big business these days. Almost every imaginable casino game is available online, including craps. So, is it better to play online or at a live casino? It’s a matter of preference.

Live casinos offer the most excitement. A hot roll online just isn’t the same as at a live craps table with 15 other players. When the dice are hot, everyone screams, laughs, and high-fives. When the dice are cold, everyone feels miserable with you so others share in your anxiety. When playing online, you usually play alone where there’s no one to share in your emotional rollercoaster. If you’re a loner and can’t stand being around people, then you’ll probably enjoy playing online. I know a lot of people who avoid playing live craps for that very reason. They’d rather sit like a brain-dead zombie in front of a video blackjack machine because they prefer being alone.

Playing online craps is a much quicker game than at a live casino. The bets online seem to fly from one to the next, which means you can lose your bankroll a lot quicker than in a live casino. Craps play at a live casino is much slower. Dealers can be slow when paying or taking down bets. Shooters who think they have some bogus talent of controlling the dice can take what seems like forever to roll the dice. Before every throw, they go through their silly routine of finding the right dice orientation, finger grip, finger pressure, and other idiotic habits before they go through their weird gyration of actually tossing the dice. The good thing about the slowness of a live craps table is that it takes much longer to lose your bankroll. However, when things get bogged down, it’s common to hear people complain, “Hurry up and shoot!” or “Why is this dealer so slow?”

A positive aspect of online craps is that you can play in your own home at any time. You don’t have to fly to Vegas or drive an hour wasting $15 worth of gas. You can sit and play in your pajamas if you like. If you feel like playing only a few rolls during halftime, you can quickly login and play, then logout, and be back in your chair for the second-half kickoff.

Most online casinos allow you to preview their games before playing for real money. If you don’t like the graphics, sounds, speed, or anything about their game, you can logout and try another online casino. Some online casinos have graphics and sound so technically advanced that it’s easy to imagine you’re playing at a live casino. Most online casinos also give you a free-play “bonus,” but you can’t cash-out that bonus until you meet the required minimum playing time or betting amount.

Playing online craps means you accept the fact that you’re using a computer with a programmed random-number generator. This fact has always made me a bit leery about playing online. I prefer the natural randomness of live dice rolls instead of a computer making the decision. I always have the suspicion in the back of my head that the online game is somehow fixed. I don’t have any proof to back up that suspicion and my suspicion may be completely unfounded and unwarranted, but it’s still in the back of my head nonetheless.

So, which is better, playing craps online or at a live casino? It’s entirely up to you. Some people prefer playing online, others prefer a live table. The only way you’ll know which you like better is to play both and decide for yourself.